An integrated approach for including social capacities, and economic valuation in risk assessment of water related hazards in uncertain scenarios

This paper proposes the KULTURisk framework and its implementation methods SERRA (Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment) for integrated risk assessment and economic valuation of risk prevention benefits on multiple receptors. Risk is here considered as the combination of Hazard, Vulnerability and Exposure. In turn, Vulnerability is the result of the interactions between physical characteristics and the capacities of the socio-economic system to adapt and cope with a given natural hazard.

The authors underline the need for a holistic and scientifically sound approach towards risk and uncertainty assessment of water-related hazards and such approach should necessarily be well grounded in climate change science and thus also synergistic with adaptation efforts. A comprehensive estimation of risk should not only be based on direct tangible costs, but it should go beyond, considering also indirect and intangible costs. The document drives also the attention of decision makers to the need for proper uncertainty assessment techniques when climate change is taken into consideration.

This document is an input paper of the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.