Canada wildfires, 2023 - Forensic analysis

The UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2024) report presents 10 case studies, each one with a forensic risk analysis, which systematically examines and investigates the disasters to understand their causes and impacts, as well as the effectiveness of any mitigation measures.

Step 1- Understanding the disaster DNA

What happened?

The 2023 wildland fires across Canada were unprecedented. In Alberta, the fires became out of control in late spring, followed by large wildfires in Quebec, Nova Scotia, Northwest Territories, and British Columbia as the summer progressed.

No civilian fatalities were recorded, but the fires did kill eight firefighters. The number of secondary injuries remains unknown. The wildfires burned through 15 million hectares, an area larger than Greece and double the previous record from 1989. Some 232,000 Canadians were forced to evacuate their homes, and, in some areas, the skies were filled with smoke for weeks.

The fires blanketed much of Canada, but also spread smoke to the United States and Europe, impacting air quality standards and posing risks to human health.

The loss of tree cover from these fires released about 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, nearly four times the emissions from aviation in 2022. Much of this carbon will eventually be reabsorbed as Canada's forests regrow, but it will take decades to sequester the carbon emitted in just a single year.

Exposure: Where was damage concentrated?

Canada's 2023 wildland fires were bigger than ever in terms of their scale, range, area burned, and impact. Starting in May, the fires sometimes consumed more than 1.6 million hectares in a single week. The widespread nature of the wildfires meant that they affected more people than ever before, with an estimated 232,000 people evacuated.[3]

Many of those affected lived in rural or semi-rural areas near cities, including growing numbers of rural recreation properties, critical infrastructure, and isolated communities. This expansion increased the number of people and industries exposed to the impacts of wildfires.

In terms of firefighting difficulty and likely fire duration, wildfire conditions in 2023 were the worst ever recorded in Canada for the period 1980-2023. In response, twelve countries and the European Union sent a total of 5,500 international firefighters, support staff, and equipment through the Union Civil Protection Mechanism.5

The severity of the fires heightened concerns about secondary impacts, including damage to watersheds, habitat loss for animals, potential flooding due to hydrophobic soils and land cover removal, as well as the loss of cultural and recreational landscapes.

The Global Report on Internal Displacement calculated that Canada accounted for 43 per cent of worldwide wildfire displacements in 2023.

Canada's changing climate is also contributing to large insect infestations, which increased tree mortality between 2000 and 2020 and heightened the risk of wildfires.9 Changes in fire ignition patterns have also played a role.

Canada's 2023 wildfires emitted nearly 480 megatons of carbon, almost five times the Canadian average for the past 20 years and accounting for 23 percent of the world's wildfire emissions that year. Additionally, some 10,700 kilotons of particulate matter (PM2.5) were emitted, 5.3 times the annual average. Pollutants from Canada's wildfires were injected high into the atmosphere, reaching countries in western Europe too.

Vulnerability: Who was affected and why?

Multiple factors increase the risk of wildfires in Canada, including fire exclusion policies, land-use and forest management practices, population growth in the wildland-urban interface, fire management, and climate change.

First Nations living on reserves are disproportionately impacted and the 2023 season was no exception. Some 80 percent of Canada's Indigenous communities are located in or near forests that burn frequently. Besides being more vulnerable to wildfires, these communities often have fewer resources to respond and recover. First Nations living on reserves account for just 1.2 percent of the Canadian population, but their evacuation rates during the 2023 wildfires were eight times higher than the general population.

The isolation of these communities further exacerbates their vulnerability, since they are often outside the jurisdiction of local firefighters and lack essential infrastructure such as all-weather roads. First Nations have expressed concern about being excluded from wildfire management mechanisms. One year after the 2023 fires, many Indigenous communities remain displaced.

Canada's older adults, many of whom live in rural areas, are also at heightened risk during wildfires. Now outnumbering children and adolescents in Canada, they require more assistance during evacuations. The Canadian Statistics Office projects that by 2051, people aged 65 and over will represent 25 percent of Canada's population. Understanding the geographical distribution and vulnerabilities of Canada's aging population is crucial for wildfire management agencies as they prepare for and plan disaster responses.

Wildfires impact both physical and mental health, making them a risk to public health and well-being. While discussions around public health often focus on the acute and short-term impacts, the long-term effects of wildfires on populations and communities are expected to persist. Individuals who remain in place or who are not repatriated may face other long-term public health risks that are not fully addressed in this report.

In British Columbia, two wildfires caused losses exceeding CA$720 million, making them the province's most expensive extreme weather events on record.

Resilience: what factors limited the impacts?

Canada's national and local governments are increasing their spending on wildfire prevention and mitigation, but these amounts are still small compared to the costs of wildfire suppression.

Despite disruptions to industries such as oil, lumber, and tourism, the Canadian economy has demonstrated a strong ability to recover from wildfires. Canada has proactively enhanced its economic resilience by investing in critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and communication networks. These efforts facilitate recovery and strengthen the economy's ability to withstand future wildfires.

Promoting economic diversification and sustainable industries is crucial for reducing reliance on vulnerable sectors. This diversification helps stabilize the economy and mitigate the broader impacts of wildfires, ensuring long-term economic stability.

The Canadian government's swift response and support for affected communities and industries demonstrates effective policy measures aimed at economic resilience. This support includes financial assistance, job creation initiatives, and long-term economic development plans. Infrastructure needs are addressed, and businesses receive the necessary support.

Canada's robust insurance programs and risk management strategies play a vital role in mitigating financial losses and supporting economic recovery. These measures help businesses and homeowners to recover quickly, minimizing disruptions to economic activities.

Bringing together all jurisdictions, including First Nations, and integrating policies and actions - from wildfire prevention to post-fire recovery - can fully incorporate local knowledge and priorities. Utilizing "good data" through dynamic land-use maps from earth observations can help identify communities at the wildland-urban interface. When combined with socioeconomic information and local or Indigenous knowledge, this data can help to assess wildfire risk and prioritize preventive actions. "Meaningful inclusion" enhances the impact of "good data" by fostering knowledge sharing among communities and local actors, helping to build a common framework for understanding how wildfires impact communities and developing potential solutions to prevent disasters.

Indigenous Services Canada is coordinating efforts to address wildfire management through new multilateral emergency management service agreements with First Nations as full and equitable partners. There is growing recognition that the revival and expansion of Indigenous fire knowledge and stewardship practices can help to improve biodiversity and reduce wildland fire risk to communities.

Indigenous knowledge is a key element in responding to the climate crisis. Recognizing this, the Canadian government has created a program through Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to promote Indigenous climate leadership and low-emissions energy initiatives.[9]

Step 2- Future trends

People

• By 2050, 25 percent of Canada's population will be over the age of 65.
• Currently 32 percent of First Nations reserves are in or directly adjacent to the wildland-urban interface, putting them at particularly high risk of forest fires.
• Approximately 32.3 percent of land is classified as High fire risk, and 6.3 percent as Very high fire risk. Around 283,200 people live in areas at High fire risk, while 30,500 people live in areas classified as Very high fire risk.
• Indigenous on-reserve communities are especially vulnerable to wildfire impacts. An estimated 18.9 percent of people living in Indigenous reserves reside in areas at higher risk of fire, compared to only 2.4 percent of the non-reserve population.
• Communities in large urban areas have generally been spared displacement due to wildfires, but this trend shifted during the 2023 wildfire season, when nearly half of the recorded displacements took place in urban areas.
• Canada's population was 22 million in 1971, growing to 38 million in 2021. It is projected to reach between 44.4 million and 70.2 million by 2068. With population growth, encroachment into forested landscapes, and climate change, wildfire disasters will likely become more frequent and with more dramatic consequences. The social, physical and ecological losses will likely also increase.
• Migration of First nation people away from their territories to urban areas is becoming more common.
• Smoke from wildfires impacts populations near the fire activity, as well as those at a distance due to the long-range transport of air pollutants. For 2013 to 2016 and from 2017 to 2018, annual premature mortality attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 was estimated at 54-240 mortalities from short-term exposure and 570-2,500 deaths from long-term exposure, along with many cardiorespiratory morbidity outcomes.

Planet

• Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average. Its Arctic regions are warming nearly four times as fast. Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada in 2023, including high temperatures, low humidity, and drought. It also made Québec's 2023 fire season around 50 percent more intense.
• Each year, wildfires burn more than 2 million hectares of Canadian forest.
• The 2023 fire season emitted almost 480 megatons of carbon, nearly five times the average for the past 20 years, accounting for 23 percent of the total global wildfire carbon emissions that year.

Prosperity

• Economic losses due to forest fires are currently significant and may rise if current fire trends continue. Assistance funds average about CA$340 million per year in Canada, with CA$1.7 billion paid by the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements Program between 2016-2017 and 2020-21.
• About 1,910,534 buildings in Canada are directly exposed to wildfires, with 6.4 percent classified as being at high to very high wildfire risk. Although these numbers are estimates, they provide a realistic measure of the potential socio-economic impacts of wildfires on Canadian communities. The past shows that a single fire event can destroy hundreds or even thousands of buildings, leading to direct and indirect losses that can total several billion Canadian dollars.
• Fire smoke, an indirect exposure, poses risks to human health. The economic valuation of health impacts was estimated per year at CA$410 million to CA$1.8 billion per year for acute health impacts, and CA$4.3 billion to CA$19 billion for chronic health impacts between 2013 and 2018.

Step 3: Forensic learning

This section aims to encourage dialogue around the forensic analysis to foster improved decision making. The areas for consideration below are envisaged as an input to stimulate in-country discussion and action plan on future disaster prevention and enhanced disaster risk management