Five countries are featured in the Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems 2024 report that demonstrate national efforts. Each case study includes details of the key institutions involved in MHEWS at the national level as well as the legislative frameworks and national plans that can support MHEWS.
National context
Ethiopia is an LDC and LLDC in East Africa. Ethiopia's climate is traditionally divided into three zones: Dega, with its alpine vegetated cool zones; Woina Dega, which is temperate, and Qola, which is hot and has both tropical and arid regions. Ethiopia is exposed and vulnerable to climate-related hazards, most notably drought and flooding. Other extremes, such as increased temperature and erratic rainfall, have been experienced more frequently and intensely in recent times. It is estimated that floods affect about 250,000 people annually and cause extensive damage to buildings (approximately $ 200 million) and cropland (approximately $ 3.5 million). Drought is a common hazard, with more than 19 periods of widespread and severe food shortages recorded in the past 100 years. On average, about 1.5 million people are affected by drought each year, but this number can be higher in dry years.
Highlights and successes
At the regional and international levels, Ethiopia has made meaningful steps towards increasing resilience to climate change and extreme weather events while simultaneously increasing the capacity of local actors to do the same. Recent examples include the approval of A Roadmap for Multi-Hazard, Impact-Based Early Warning Early Action System 2023 -2030 (Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, 2022) and its costed implementation plan, along with the launch of the Early Warning for All (EW4All) coordination mechanisms. One such mechanism, the National Early Warning Technical Working Group (NEWSTWG), has the sole purpose of coordinating, aligning and connecting all Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) initiatives to ensure that the overarching EW4All ambitions are met.
Recently, the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) has taken the lead in coordinating several Anticipatory Action (AA) initiatives. The Impact-Based Forecasting Model, developed by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS)
with support from the Netherlands Red Cross, is a notable example of an innovative approach to disaster preparedness and response. This model has been operational for four years, providing valuable insights and actionable data to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters. A significant achievement in 2023 was the finalization of the Anticipatory Action Plan (AAP) for drought in the Somali region, with support from WFP (WFP, 2024). Due to be implemented ahead of the March-April-May 2024 season, the AAP builds on the EAP developed by the ERCS. WFP has since made progress in other regions, such as Oromia and the south, by establishing regional technical working groups (TWGs) and aiming to implement anticipatory actions with a one-month lead time. The EAP has benefited from the active participation of key organizations at national and international levels (e.g. the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and OCHA). Their collaborative efforts have significantly enhanced the effectiveness and impact of the EAP, strengthening disaster preparedness and response capabilities.
Key stakeholders:
EDRMC is the formal focal government institution responsible for coordinating disaster response, risk management, preventive measures and recovery programmes. The NEWSTWG is chaired by the Head of Lead Executive Office of the National Early Warning and Response Coordination Centre (NEWRCC) at the EDRMC, which convenes all actors in the EWEA continuum with participation from the United Nations, NGOs, line ministries (including the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and the Hydrology Directorate of the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy) as well as the ERCS.
Platforms, policies and plans:
The recently approved revised policy of the National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management (2024) aims to reduce disaster risks and potential damage caused by a disaster through a comprehensive and coordinated DRM system in the context of sustainable development and includes several policy issues, including DRM and EWS.
Multi-Hazard Impact Based Early Warning Early Action System (MH-IB-EWEAS) Roadmap and its implementation plan.
Activities and projects:
Various partners in Ethiopia have MHEWS initiatives to scale up EWEA, including:
WHCA (see Box 6 in section 3.1.1).
CREWS Horn of Africa (see Box 4 in section 3.1.1).
SOFF (see Box 14 in section 3.1.1).
One WaSH National Programme, which ensures universal access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) through an integrated sector-wide approach (World Bank, 2024).
Strengthen Ethiopia's Adaptive Safety Net project, which aims to "expand geographic coverage and enhance service delivery of Ethiopia's adaptive rural safety net to improve the well-being of extremely poor and vulnerable households in drought prone communities".
Several projects have incorporated the MH-IB-EWEA system and its roll-out and implementation into their project frameworks, for example the Lowland Resilience Project, which aims to bolster resilience across eight regions and Dire Dawa City, and the USAID DRM Activity, which integrates critical preparedness and response measures into the DRM cycle and underscores the importance of proactive EWEA strategies in mitigating risks and enhancing the country's capacity to respond effectively to emergencies.
Anticipatory action initiatives led by WFP, OCHA, World Vision, the Catholic Relief Services Joint Emergency Operations Programme and the ERCS have mobilized resources and are actively implementing projects that align with the MHEWS road map's priority action areas. These initiatives reflect a strong commitment to proactive DRM strategies, ensuring that communities are better prepared for potential hazards.
The SWAN Consortium, spearheaded by Save the Children UK, has also aligned its anticipatory action programme with the MHEWS priority areas.
Ethiopia is also receiving financial and technical support to develop national project proposals through the Multi-country Project Advancing EW4All project (see Box 41).
Challenges and gaps
Key challenges and gaps persist in the scaleup of EWEA in Ethiopia. They include the lack of harmonization in strategies and practice, lack of enhanced knowledge and information management systems, inadequate funding, limited and mostly old risk knowledge information,141 limited skills and knowledge, limited coordination between line ministries and all actors across the EWS value chain.
The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and the Hydrology Directorate have good forecasting capacities and score higher on a range of measures than both the global and regional averages of the assessed countries featured within the dashboard (see Figure 4.2). Despite relatively high numbers of automatic hydrometeorological stations, few report internationally and maintenance is challenging due to a shortage of funds and challenging topography, especially for hydrological monitoring. In addition, while it has been initiated, there is a need to embed the impact-based forecasting approach and more importantly, to transform weather forecasts into actionable warning messages.
Another challenge is a lack of coordination at the operational level of the entire EWEA value cycle, from the generation of risk-informed early warnings to communication and dissemination of early actions from the federal level to the most at-risk communities. There have also been major gaps in coordination and alignment between government-led early warnings and the anticipatory action initiatives led by humanitarian and development actors, resulting in a duplication of efforts and resources, especially in relation to the communication and dissemination of warnings and actions to be taken. A lack of exercises, drills and simulations also means that there have so far been few opportunities to practise a coordinated response to warnings.
Community participation in design and decisionmaking for woreda- and community-based early warning response has often been limited. Furthermore, the lack of threshold-activated early action protocols for response, evacuation and recovery activities has led to delays in preparedness and the early action required to save the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable. Where plans do exist, these need to be reviewed continuously and improvements made, especially where events are missed, such as the flooding of the Shebelle River. This was not detected by the GloFAS and as a result, anticipatory action was not triggered (WFP, 2024).
Lessons learned and good practices
Lessons and good practices that are relevant to the MHEWS implementation include the following: Strengthening the use of risk profiles for EWEA is of paramount importance in response to the changing climate and hence changing risks. Increased coordination and partnership among stakeholders are necessary across the EWEA value cycle.
CREWS in Ethiopia
The CREWS project in Ethiopia, as part of the CREWS Horn of Africa regional project (see Box 4 in section 3.1.1), supports capacity-building for regional and national entities to produce and use climate, weather and hydrological services, including MHEWS. Key partners in Ethiopia include the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, the Ministry of Water and Energy and the EDRMC.
The project applies an inclusive, people-centred approach to involve refugees, persons with disabilities and remote communities in the design and development of EWS.
Since the launch of EW4All in Ethiopia in August 2023, capacity-building activities for impact-based early warning and disaster preparedness have been initiated, including training events to empower local institutions and communities to better understand and utilize early warning information. Knowledge exchange workshops on flood forecasting and early warning with international experts have also been organized and complement the activities and outputs of the Ethiopia Flood Management Project and the World Bank's Integrated Disaster Risk Management Project. In addition, enhancements have been made to data management systems and observational networks and there has been support for the development of forecast-based financing mechanisms to enable the rapid deployment of resources in anticipation of disasters.
Cycles of multiple, often overlapping crises have severely weakened communities' ability to cope in Ethiopia. These crises are primarily driven by the convergence of four major factors: climate crises (flood and drought), armed conflicts, diseases and economic shocks. Dealing with this situation requires effective collaboration between stakeholders to pool resources and coordinate responses; clear, timely and context-specific communication to ensure that communities understand and act on warnings; strengthening of communitybased disaster preparedness; establishing supportive policies and institutional frameworks to enable EWEA; and securing financial investments to necessary to sustain these systems.
SOFF in Ethiopia
To be GBON-compliant, Ethiopia is required to run and consistently report observations from 29 GBON surface weather stations and five upper-air stations. Currently, Ethiopia reports only 16 GBON manual surface weather stations and does not have an active upper-air network. $ 9.9M of funding was approved in March 2024 to enable the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute to upgrade 16 existing surface and two upper-air stations, install 13 new surface and three upper-air stations, and build human and ICT capability to enable Ethiopia to fulfil the GBON requirement. Importantly for long term sustainability, these investments are aligned with the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute's 10-year plan (2020-2029). The plan and business plan act as a guideline for the establishment