Indonesia wildfires, 2023 - Forensic analysis

The UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2024) report presents 10 case studies, each one with a forensic risk analysis, which systematically examines and investigates the disasters to understand their causes and impacts, as well as the effectiveness of any mitigation measures.

Step 1- Understanding the disaster DNA

What happened?

In 2023, Indonesia experienced a significant surge in wildfires, with the total area burned reaching 1.16 million hectares (2.87 million acres), a fivefold increase from 2022. This dramatic rise in fires was largely attributed to the El Niño phenomenon, which caused prolonged dry conditions across the region.

Human activities contribute to 98 percent of all fires, primarily due to social and cultural factors, including economic needs. Fire is a cheaper and easier method to clear land for crops, particularly oil palms.

When Indonesia's forests burn, particularly on peatlands, they release large amounts of smoke and pollutants into the air, posing serious health risks to the populations of Indonesia and Southeast Asia. The burning also has global implications, impacting the world's fight against climate change and biodiversity loss. Indonesia is one of the world's top ten countries in terms of forest area. It also hosts the world's third most significant variety of tree species.

Exposure: Where was damaged concentrated?

The most affected provinces included South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Sumatra, with extensive areas of land and peatlands caught fire. Between January and September 2023, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry identified 2,608 hotspots, nearly six times the 441 hotspots during the same period in 2022.

Most of the burning occurred in scrubland and degraded forest areas rather than intact forests, resulting in lower greenhouse gas emissions than in 2022. However, the fires still destroyed 13,260 hectares (32,800 acres) of primary forest. Key drivers of deforestation in Indonesia include illegal logging, "slash and burn" practices to prepare land for oil palm plantations, and low-grade nickel mining. Various political and socio-economic factors influence land development, which, while helping to lift people out of poverty, also causes complex environmental and social impacts, such as smoke and air pollution.

Kalimantan, one of Indonesia's largest peatland regions, experienced the highest rates of burning and the most repeated fire incidents, indicating a shift from extensive to recurrent fires. The fires severely degraded air quality in the cities of Kalimantan and Sumatra, with air pollution levels rapidly reaching very unhealthy levels due to the increased hotspot counts. While wildfire impacts are intense for communities near forest areas, the haze travels across Southeast Asia. In 2023, Jakarta's air pollution levels were arguably the worst since 2019, consistent with a long-term trend of unhealthy air quality. Over 29 million people in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area were exposed to unhealthy air for more than half of the year. Concentrations of Particulate Matter that is 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5) remained in the "unhealthy" range from June to the end of the year, equivalent to 8 to 10 times the 2021 WHO Air Quality Guideline.

Besides health, the wildfires and related smog also impacted transportation (flights, shipping and road travel), and tourism. They increased the production of ozone, acid rain, and greenhouse gases, reducing quality of life, biodiversity and plant photosynthesis by obstructing solar radiation.

Vulnerability: Who was affected and why?

Besides the loss of life and property, nearly 10 million children, particularly in Kalimantan and Sumatra, were affected by the pervasive air pollution from wildfires and peatland fires in 2019, leading to school closures and depriving children of learning opportunities. Studies show that infants born to mothers, exposed to high pollution levels during pregnancy, face increased risks of complicated births and growth-related issues. Incidences of foetal and infant deaths were significantly higher in economically disadvantaged areas than in the wealthier regions.

Poverty drives the use of fire for agricultural development in Indonesia, with less developed and more remote villages being more likely to burn. Addressing this issue requires solutions to tackle existing poverty.

The impact of forest fires and haze is particularly significant for vulnerable communities, especially those with chronic risk factors. Research shows that while young men quickly recovered from the effects of haze, the impact on older adults persisted until the haze subsided. Prime-age women also experienced health effects for several months after the haze had cleared.

Fire directly impacts and destroys biomass, organic matter, plant composition, and diversity. It affects the soil's physical and chemical properties, leading to loss of soil structure, reduced porosity, increased pH, threats to endangered species, and changes in habitat structure and species composition. The fires in 2015 alone resulted in the loss of over 760,000 hectares of Indonesian forests.

Resilience: what factors limited the impacts?

The Indonesian government continues its efforts to limit the burning of forest and land for commercial purposes. While this is challenging across such a large territory, several key measures have helped to limit the impacts of the 2023 wildfires.

Indonesia's regulatory interventions have been more effective in reducing forest fire incidents than in countries like Russia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States. These regulations generally fall into four main categories: fire management, forest exploitation and management, disaster management, and decentralization.

Since the extensive forest fires of 1997-1998, Indonesia has strengthened its regulations on wildfires. Although the use of fire is significant for livelihoods and cultural practices, especially in Indigenous communities, the enforcement of fire bans has been criticized because they disproportionately target traditional farmers. These groups have often been respecting local customs, while major corporations have had a larger environmental impact.

The government takes direction action when significant fires are linked to suspected legal breaches. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry appoints expert witnesses to gather evidence for legal proceedings, focusing on accountability. The government supports multilevel operations, facilitates fire care community groups, provides technical training, and conducts public awareness campaigns on forest fires and prevention. However, potential gaps remain, including inefficient impact assessment methods, insufficient education, and weak connections between state institutions and communities.

Indonesia has garnered global support, established sub-directorate bodies, conducted public education initiatives, enforced environmental taxes and fines, and engaged NGOs and international entities to address cross-border smog and haze pollution. The Ministry of Forestry patrols forest areas, uses satellite imagery and watchtowers to prevent fires. However, inconsistent regulations have hindered the effective prevention and management of fires.

The use of incentives can enhance fire prevention and reduction efforts, ensuring sufficient fire-fighting capacities, compulsory insurance, and deposit schemes, for example. The Indonesian government continues to attempt regulation and other interventions to control and limit forest and land burning for commercial gain, but this remains a challenging task across such a large territory.

Recent haze and smog periods have highlighted the health damage that forest burning can cause across Southeast Asia. To lift people in these areas out of poverty and provide better livelihood opportunities, it is crucial to make the right investments at the right time. This involves valuing unspoilt nature and providing local communities with viable alternative livelihood options, rather than encouraging land to be slashed and burned for commercial purposes. This case study highlights the importance of making "the right investment" to prevent disasters, whether by governments, private sector corporates, or smallholder farmers.

Step 2- Future trends

People

• Most fires in Indonesia are linked to ownership claims or traditional agricultural methods like slash-and-burn land clearing. This trend is likely to continue in the near future. In Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo, about one third of the tropical forests have been cut down in the past few decades.
• In 2018, some 53 percent of Indonesians were living in poverty, defined by the World Bank's international poverty line. For many farmers, "slash and burn" is the fastest, easiest, and most cost-effective way to clear land, providing access to food and income.
• Smog associated with these fires will continue to harm the health of Indonesians. Evidence shows that cumulative exposure to smoke particles adversely affects lung function and blood pressure.

Planet

• Indonesia will experience higher fire risks due to rising temperatures, even during non-drought years, driven by high evaporation rates in fragmented forest.
• A recent study predicts that as climate change worsens and deforestation intensifies, the risk of forest fires will continue to rise. The combined effect of climate change and deforestation in Borneo significantly increases fire risks. High levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, coupled with deforestation-caused dry conditions, further fuel these fires.
• Indonesia is projected to lose an additional 13 percent of its forest cover in the next decade, exacerbating biodiversity losses by destroying critical biomass, altering plant compositions, and degrading soil properties.

Prosperity

• Fires in Indonesia cause significant economic damage, estimated at $16 billion each year. This exceeds the value of palm oil exports in 2014, around $8 billion. Prolonged haze exposure also hampers plant productivity, further crippling agriculture including the palm oil sector.
• Reducing the frequency of forest fires by just 1 percent could generate a net benefit of between US$17 million and $145 million. Even the lower estimate of health benefits would exceed the agricultural gains from continued forest fires. However, as Indonesia's economy grows, air quality is likely to deteriorate further.

Step 3: Forensic learning

This section aims to encourage dialogue around the forensic analysis to foster improved decision making. The areas for consideration below are envisaged as an input to stimulate in-country discussion and action plan on future disaster prevention and enhanced disaster risk management